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Week 1. Predict The Score: Tampa Bay at New York, 8 September 2013


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#1 Xandtar

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:03 AM

Hello

Welcome to the all-new exciting 2013 season of Predict The Score, the weekly thread in which you try to prove either your brilliance at analyzing team play or your degree of dumb luck (usually the latter) and demonstrate that you are the best at knowing what will happen each week. Normally I'd start this on Sunday but the thunderstorm took out my satellite last night and the mobile backup is leaving with my wife when she visits my sister-in-law for the rest of the weekend.

The rules of this thread are simple. You are allowed to bless or blast each others' opinions on what will happen, to mock and insult or agree and praise as the case may be. BUT this comes with an admissions price, a cover charge, an entry fee, etc.. Unless you a) own the website, are an admin/moderator, or c) have posted a next-matchup breakdown thread elsewhere that incorporates a specific score prediction, in your first post in each week's Predict-The-Score thread you are required to predict the exact score of each team in next week's game. Now after a few years at this, I recall a few cheaters out there, so though one would think this is unnecessary, there are a few other rules to ensure fairness.

EDIT: Incorporated some old informal rules about "duels", and put in the ad hoc season points totals in new section 2.

1. You have to predict the exact score for the moment the game is OVER, naming the teams specifically. You can't say, for example, 21-20 without saying who is to get the 21 and who gets the 20, and we don't mean at halftime.

2. Point spreads are not adequate. While great for those interested in such, that's not what this thread is for, that's too easy. By definition, if you posted an exact score, you posted a spread with it.

3. You can't edit the post in which you predicted the score. If some grammar or spelling annoys you that much, either delete the post and repost a new, corrected edition later, or at least mention it, as noted in rule 4 below. It is recommended that the next poster in line quote the previous prediction to lock it in, and on others to note if the prediction and the lock don't agree. Any edits disqualify that post for post-game kudos. Any locks that contain changes disqualify the locker, if he/she is caught. Simply, it's an honor system, with lots of watchers. It only works if others point out errors.

4. You ARE allowed to change your prediction later in the week. Injuries happen in practice, etc. To make such a change, quote the old prediction and state that it is being changed, and make the new prediction.

5. All predictions close fifteen minutes before game time. Most of the time, sometime early in the game I shall post the collated predictions, and follow along, eliminating predictions until at the very end one person is judged closest and is given kudos. Honorable mention is made when someone is remarkably close in the score-- but with the teams reversed. EDIT: See Duels section below in (10). for possible "bonus" honorable mention status.

6. Sorry no cash prizes, though last year we had winner's sigs (thank you, peterparker!) . I even earned a reversed-colors honorable mention sig (aka the Bizarro sig) one time a couple of years back, it was so ugly, but it was all in the spirit of the game.

7. The winner of the week is, with small variations, the person whose score was 1) for the winning team and 2) closest in TOTAL points for both teams' overall progress, i.e. if you predicted 23-00 and another person predicted 24-20, if the actual score were 23-21, the second person wins even though the first person hit the winning score closer. There are several informal tiebreakers. In the event of a dispute as to who was actually closest, I defer to my co-director and appeals judge, Crocaneers. If I made the initial call, HIS decision is final and vise versa.

8. Oh yeah, of course you're allowed to predict the same score as someone else. Maybe you thought of it first and they were just quicker to post, whatever. If you're both right he or she gets the "win" but you'll both be mentioned in the post-season followup thread. You'll also earn many points in the season points contest, it's not about any one week this way.

9. You are allowed to make "IF" predictions, provided the prediction can be satisfied either at kickoff (for anything not involving players, e.g. temperature below/above freezing) or at the end of the first play in which a given player or offensive/defensive/special teams unit could have been on the field. This usually consists of who's starting, or whether the first offensive play will be a pass, etc.

You are therefore allowed to post something like this:

IF Backup Quarterback A starts for the Steelers, Bucs 14, Steelers 17
IF Backup Quarterback B starts for the Steelers, Bucs 17, Steelers 14

10. You are allowed to call out a specific score posted one way, and declare you are going exactly the opposite way. This is called a score duel, and if one of the two wins, the other one is automatically given an "honorable mention" and the Bizarro sig that comes with it. This is the only way that more than one Bizarro sig could be earned in the same week, which is important in the season points score (see section 2)

11. I'm going to try to keep my thread nanny ways minimal this year, trusting others to help enforce these simple rules so that anyone even one normally a lurker, can post in here without worrying about these guys spoiling the party http://flamewarriors...provocateur.htm

12. At the end of the year, all the winning predictions and honorable mentions will be written up in a year-end summary thread in which either a winner will be announced or some other means will be determined to choose the CHAMPION of the 2013 Predict The Score Series. It is worth mentioning that Big Sombrero,with two wins including hitting one score straight, was the 2012 CHAMPION. Congrats again.
http://www.bbs.tbayb...of-season-2012/

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Part 2: Season points contest. Either as a separate though related contest or as a determinant for champion status (see 1.12 above), the season points contest will begin this season in a separate thread in the fantasy football forum http://www.bbs.tbayb...on-points-race/. The rules for this side contest are as follows:

1. For each game, you have the opportunity to earn from zero to four points, though two points or more for any given game will be rare and even 1 point totals are relatively rare.

2. A standing total of the points leaders for each game and total over the season will be posted periodically. The person leading at the end of the season will be the points champion.

3. Each week, there are three ways to earn points in this season-long contest.

..... i. First and foremost, one must predict a score in a given week that is very close to one or both of each team's final score.
........... This is the sum of { the absolute value of 1/ [1+(Bucs actual score - Bucs predicted score)] + the absolute value of 1/[1+(foes actual - foes predicted)]}
.......... EXCEPT If the difference between actual and predicted is greater than nine points, the person gets zero points for that part of the score
.................(so you get 0.1 or more, or nothing, I won't calculate to the third decimal place).
..... ii. A 0.25 point bonus to this score is added if you predicted the correct winner of the game.
..... iii. A 1.00 point bonus is given for hitting both scores "straight", by predicting the EXACT SCORE, even if someone who posted before you "won the weekly contest" by doing the same thing.
..... iiii. A 0.50 point bonus is given to any weekly winner who sports the winning sig (if available) for one week following the game in which he or she won. A further 0.5 points can be earned by that weekly winner if he or she keeps that sig up until he or she wins again or season's end. Any non-winner sporting a winner's sig loses 1.00 points for the year.
..... v. If you are declared "honorable mention" and sport the extra-ugly Bizarro sig for the week following the game, you get 1.00 points for being a good sport. If you keep it up all season or until you win a week, you get a further 1.00 point.

Lots of math, you stats junkies will enjoy this I think. Basically even if you're horrible at scores per se, if you pick the winner each week, you'll earn steady points towards the points crown and with one late-season direct hit you could pick up 1.0 (bucs score), 1.0 (foe score) 1.0 (hitting both scores straight) 1.0 (wearing winners sig final month) to steal the crown-- but other steady predictors will be right there with you so in the end I think the bonuses will wash out and the final points champ will be the overall best predictor. We'll see this year.

Example. Two predictors, neither of whom won the week with a 31-27 Bucs-foes final score. Predictor 1 chose 28-7 Bucs, Predictor 2 chose 31-40 Foes.
Predictor 1's total is 0.25 points for the Bucs difference [1/(1+3)], 0 for the foes (20 points difference), and 0.25 points for choosing the correct winner, for a weekly score of 0.50.
Predictor 2 got 1.00 points for hitting the Bucs score perfect [1/(1+0)], 0 for the foes (13 points difference), and 0 for choosing the wrong winner, for a weekly score of 1.00 points.

In the season contest, unlike the weekly contest, there is a premium on hitting any ONE score straight, which is why it's more or less a separate contest within a contest, and located in a forum other than Team Discussions.

-----------------

Part 3: Opposing Fan Forums

As part of posting this thread every week, I used to tie it to a link on one opposing team forum. Usually this is the official team forum (exception: 49ers who won't activate any non-49er fan), but sometimes it had been some other site. I'll probably still do this as it is fun to watch opposing fans blast our prediction from the safety of their home, but I no longer make this a full promise, as many of the fans from the Black N Gold forum SAID they had tried to sigh up here the week before the game but could not get activated. Considering what it is like when a wave of really nasty annoying opposing fans come in trying to cause trouble (e.g. on the Giants forums last year in reverse) I'm not about to criticise the management's admissions policies they own this place. But I won't necessarily go in to opposing forums either.

Part 3: Schedule (thanks again Pewterslimsme your link from last year carries over)

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So, I'll begin.

I don't think we've shown shark spit based on our preseason. But I don't recall many stellar preseason performances last year that would have predicted 38 points scored on our side in a game either. So for my prediction, I'm remembering that a) we are 0-0 and src="http://www.bbs.tbayb...lt/cool.gif">/> this is the freakin' JETS we're playing, in a year that the coach is just coasting before he's fired no matter what. So, I am starting with a confident, offense-rich prediction of

TAMPA BAY 31, NEW YORK JETS 10

Your turn and good luck this year.

Edited by Xandtar, 28 September 2013 - 11:34 AM.

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#2 Xandtar

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:04 AM

I usually have to edit the first post so I'll say it again now. Tampa Bay 31, New York Jets 10
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#3 maryjanewatson

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:21 AM

I usually have to edit the first post so I'll say it again now. Tampa Bay 31, New York Jets 10


Tampa Bay 17, New York Football Jets 13
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#4 maryjanewatson

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:22 AM

And there are fewer rules in a Dungeons And Dragons Handbook...I assume.
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#5 mdb1958

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:38 AM

We display a brutal clock eating rushing attack that gives us 2 scores, throw in a passing TD, an interception TD and 3 field goals.

Jets 2 field goals and a punt return TD.

37 to 13


4 sacks, 6 TFL's, and 2 INT's for a sidenote...

#6 Floggingmicah

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:49 AM

Bucs take it, 28-13

#7 maryjanewatson

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:52 AM

We display a brutal clock eating rushing attack that gives us 2 scores, throw in a passing TD, an interception TD and 3 field goals.

Jets 2 field goals and a punt return TD.

37 to 13


4 sacks, 6 TFL's, and 2 INT's for a sidenote...


I don't see us putting up 37, or even 27, unless Geno Smith throws like 3 TAINTs. The Jets defense is still pretty good and Rex Ryan is still an excellent defensive coach.
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#8 Xandtar

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:56 AM

And there are fewer rules in a Dungeons And Dragons Handbook...I assume.



Heh, I played out of the boxed set back in 76, so no.

It's pretty much all common sense, that's all.
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#9 mdb1958

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:03 AM

I don't see us putting up 37, or even 27, unless Geno Smith throws like 3 TAINTs. The Jets defense is still pretty good and Rex Ryan is still an excellent defensive coach.



Please refer to brutal - clock - eating. Also this is the closest I come to doing fantasy, but even then I feel its do-able.

Of course in order for this to happen, we must do what we couldnt do last year - consistently move the chains and stay out of 3rd and long.

Edited by mdb1958, 31 August 2013 - 08:06 AM.


#10 tbayfan

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:08 AM

23 Bucs
17 jets
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#11 Digital_Damage

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:18 AM

17 Bucs
10 Jets
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#12 Bahamian:bucfan

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:19 AM

23 Bucs
17 jets


Bucs 35

Jets 17
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#13 fansince76

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:20 AM

Oh Lawdy.This may be the hardest game to predict being the start of the long awaited season.I predict a yawner with a ton of mistakes on both sides.Bucs 10 Jets 3

#14 Clayton80past

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:26 AM

Bucs - 27
Jets - 12
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#15 Bootz2004

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:30 AM

Bucs 28
Jets 17
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#16 BrevardBucFan

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:30 AM

Based on the "it's only preseason"..

Jets 20 : Bucs 16

I expect our offense to give the game away.. but MAYBE the defense can roll some D20 crits and pull off a win.

#17 csgisback

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:40 AM

9-6 jets for the win

Both offenses looked HORRID in preseason
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#18 mdb1958

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:43 AM

Oh Lawdy.This may be the hardest game to predict being the start of the long awaited season.I predict a yawner with a ton of mistakes on both sides.Bucs 10 Jets 3



I was tempted to post somewhat along these lines but, I prefer a room full of homeristic optimism over Peteism and his band of merry men...

#19 fansince76

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:46 AM

I was tempted to post somewhat along these lines but, I prefer a room full of homeristic optimism over Peteism and his band of merry men...

LOL I AM a homer hence the handle & have us winning,but believe it'll be brutal to watch.

#20 mdb1958

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:52 AM

LOL I AM a homer hence the handle & have us winning,but believe it'll be brutal to watch.



(Brutal) maybe and maybe not, I gotta think Schiano has worked this team real hard to atleast make it show something. I'm prediction a power and finesse running game.

#21 dikenya

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:01 AM

The game will be much closer than it should be but the Bucs pull it out on the road with a kick return TD.

Buccaneers 20 Jets 17

#22 acaton

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:36 AM

Bucs 10

Jets 7

An overtime win...one exciting football game.
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#23 Java

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:37 AM

Jets 2
Bucs 0


(Freeman sacked for a safety is the difference in the game)
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#24 mdb1958

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:43 AM

Jets 2
Bucs 0


(Freeman sacked for a safety is the difference in the game)



Are you not allowed to go outside, like all the other kids?

#25 Xandtar

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:43 AM

Brave prediction Java, Bravo for you!

I am VERY hopeful that you'll have earned a Bizarro sig next week, though not very confident.
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#26 PaulsDriveIn

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:45 AM

24-6 Buccaneers. I think we have a pick 6 and Freeman gets it somewhat going.
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#27 forum guy

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:53 AM

I can see this game resembling last years opener.

Bucs 16, Jets 7

#28 phantom phenom

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 11:14 AM

Jets-27
Bucs-0
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#29 BacksidePursuit

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 11:22 AM

Jets-27
Bucs-0

Bucs 31
Jets 13
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#30 NJDungeoneer

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 11:45 AM

Bucs 24

Jets 13


Geno will not learn to stay away from Revis fast enough, 2 ints lead to Bucs scores.

Go Bucs!




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